The Lindy Effect and the Software We Keep Choosing

I recently came across the Lindy effect while thinking about the kinds of technical decisions we make in long-lived software projects.

It made me reconsider a question that appears often in engineering: when does a technology become outdated, and when is its longevity actually part of its value?

The Lindy effect suggests that when a technology, tool, or idea has survived for a long time, there is some evidence that it may remain useful for longer. It is not an absolute rule, nor an invitation to reject everything new. It is a way to look more carefully at what has already proven to work.

In software, we sometimes see an old technology and assume it should be replaced. However, its longevity can also be a valuable signal: it has survived market changes, new alternatives, production problems, and the real needs of users and teams.

One of the projects we work on uses Windows Services. At first glance, that might seem like an outdated decision. However, this model remains an important part of the architecture.

A Windows Service is a long-running process managed by the Windows Service Control Manager (SCM). It can start with the operating system, run without a visible user interface, and remain active for long periods. This model has existed since the early days of Windows NT; Windows NT 3.1 was released in 1993.

Part of this decision is related to migrating legacy software, but it is not maintained only because of inheritance. For decades, Windows Services have addressed a very specific need: running software reliably, close to the operating system, and under a stable platform.

This does not mean that Windows Services are the right answer for every project. The age of a technology does not prove that it is better, safer, or cheaper. But it can be evidence of something important: it has accumulated production experience, known failure modes, tools, documentation, and operational knowledge.

To me, that is the most useful idea behind the Lindy effect. A technology that has survived for decades is not always a sign of being outdated. Sometimes, it is evidence that it has been tested enough times to remain a solid foundation.